Horizen Labs, Gutter Labs partner for the token launch, is the commonality between $GANG and $APE.  Therefore, I think it’s safe to assume similar drop mechanics and timing.  $APE was promised Q1, and they delivered on March 17^th.  $GANG was promised by the end of Q3, just 16 days away.  There is no reason to believe that there will be a delay.  GL was prudent to avoid Ethereum’s proof of stake merge for many reasons.  They also probably don’t want to overlap with Guttercon.  It would be unfair to expect holders to travel with their ledgers and make decisions in a Vegas state of mind.  However, it would be perfect timing to make an announcement!  

I think we get an announcement at Guttercon, on Caturday the 17^th for the drop to occur on the 24^th.  This would give the team plenty of time to hype, work out last-minute kinks, and adequately communicate the mechanics and utility.  The team should have learned from others’ mistakes and will instantly pair utility with the launch.  

Welcome marketplace and gutter picks!  Not only will we have a marketplace to buy/trade/sell gutter assets/merch/drop in $GANG, but a DAPP to use it for all our degenerate needs, Gutter Picks.  A DraftKings style application, where we can battle each other for $GANG in daily fantasy sports, a major tenant of the GANG GANG.

So, what were the $APE drop mechanics, and what can we deduce for $GANG?

When doing any crypto currency analysis, it is imperative to use the fully diluted market capitalization.  (The market cap if the max supply was in circulation. Fully-diluted market cap (FDMC) = price x max supply)

$APE began with a starting price of $1 and a total supply of 1,000,000,000 – broken down as follows…

15% or 150,000,000 Airdropped to Holders (Breakdown below)

47% or 470,000,000 to the Treasury/ DAO

16% or 160,000,000 to Yuga Labs/ Charity

14% or 140,000,000 to Launch Contributors

8% or 80,000,000 to the Founders.

The $GANG coin token was semi-leaked with a total supply of 100,000,000 tokens.  If we use a similar % breakdown, one can expect the following.

15% or 15,000,000 Airdropped to Holders (Breakdown below)

47% or 47,000,000 to the Treasury/ DAO

16% or 16,000,000 to Gutter Labs/ Charity

14% or 14,000,000 to Launch Contributors

8% or 8,000,000 to the Founders.

The 150,000,000 $APE tokens were distributed as follows.

Bored Apes only received 10094 $APE

Mutants 2042

Ape plus Bored Ape Kennel Club 10950

Mutant plus BACK 2895.

For this discussion, we will amalgamate gutter cats as a genesis token with bored apes.  Gutter rats, dogs, and pigeons with mutants.  And forego bonus multipliers and award that distribution with clones.  I have stated from day one it would be a major misstep not to give clones a taste of $GANG.  Especially now that they used DNA 2 as a raise to provide liquidity for $GANG.  Without further adieu, here would be the breakdown of $GANG tokens, using a similar %.

Gutter Cats receive 3,361 $GANG (10,094 divided by 10 for token supply, multiplied by 3.33 for 3,000 cats vs 10k ape supply.

Species get 454 $GANG (2042 divided by 10 for supply, multiplied by 2.22 for 9,000 species vs. 20,000 mutants supply.

Clones get 53 $GANG (approximately 10% of the airdrop, similar to the ape/mutant multiplier for bakc.  Therefore (1,500,000 divided by 28,000)

Horizon was wise not to reprice the market with $APE drop.  The Ape to Mutant ratio was 5/1 at the time of the drop, very similar to the 4.94 airdrop ratio.  I do not think they will reprice the market via the token launch with Gutter assets as well.  So how does the prescribed drop match up to current floor prices?

The current cat floor is six eth, whereas the aggregate species is 1.2, and the clone is .15.

Cats are 5/1 to species and 40/1 to clones.

The analysis above shows cats receiving 7.4x the $GANG of species and 63x clones.  If we use current floor prices while being cognizant of the 15% airdropped total supply, we could adjust to the following.

Cats receive 3,000 $GANG

Species receive 600 $GANG

Clones receive 75 $GANG

I believe the first analysis would be the top end towards cat distribution and the second the bottom.  Therefore, assuming macro weakness, but $Gang strength, the airdrop should settle between $1 and $4.  Giving the total market cap 100,000,000 to 400,000,000, a realistic number, about 1/50^th to 1/12.5 the current fully diluted market cap of $APE.

In chart form…

	GANG Drop Range	ETH Value @ 1600	$USD equivalent	% of Floor Price in USD
Cat	3,000-3,361	1.875-2.1	$3000-13,444	31% to 140%
Species	454-600	.28-.375	$454-2400	23.6% to 125%
Clone	53-75	.0033125-.046875	$53-300	22% to 125%

 -GANG GANG @yatmuseum #1085